Be Bearish Or Be Brave? – Fixed Income Monthly

September started very smooth amid a seasonally busy supply pipeline. However, a couple of market events have brought volatility back; the Evergrande debt payment remains unresolved and the hawkish tone from the FOMC September meeting has ignited some volatility in the rates market. Following the meeting, the 10-year US Treasury reached the 1.5% mark with the medium- to longer-end of the curve steepening sharply, resulting in a few volatile sessions for duration products. Additionally, natural gas prices surged globally, eroding margin for industries that cannot pass through the cost onto clients as well as bringing upward pressure to short-term inflation prints. While both Evergrande and the commodity shortage are not completely new risk factors to the market, this comes right at the time when Central Bank’s rhetoric indicates “peak support”. While we do not expect the current liquidity-driven market to get derailed, we think that the summer-21-style phase of low vol has come to an end.